{"id":5911,"date":"2023-03-03T15:42:14","date_gmt":"2023-03-03T15:42:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=5911"},"modified":"2023-03-03T15:42:17","modified_gmt":"2023-03-03T15:42:17","slug":"prediccion-de-transiciones-laborales-de-la-actividad-a-la-inactividad-en-el-mercado-laboral-argentino-un-enfoque-de-aprendizaje-automatico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=5911","title":{"rendered":"Predicci\u00f3n de transiciones laborales de la actividad a la inactividad en el mercado laboral argentino: un enfoque de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2022\/17.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El presente trabajo se propone comparar la capacidad predictiva que los modelos tradicionales y de machine learning tienen para pronosticar la probabilidad de salida del mercado de trabajo en Argentina, a fin de encontrar el estimador de mayor consistencia y poder predictivo. A su vez, se indaga acerca de la influencia que las caracter\u00edsticas (individuales, familiares y laborales) de las personas activas tienen sobre dicha probabilidad, poniendo especial \u00e9nfasis en entender el rol del g\u00e9nero como determinante de las transiciones laborales. Para esto se utilizan datos de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares para el per\u00edodo 2004-2018. Los resultados encontrados indican una diferencia estad\u00edsticamente significativa del modelo XGBoost a la hora de predecir salidas del mercado laboral respecto a los dem\u00e1s modelos, aunque tambi\u00e9n se destaca la competitividad de la regresi\u00f3n logit. En cuanto al g\u00e9nero, se encuentra que su inclusi\u00f3n como variable es igual o m\u00e1s importante que aumentar la sofisticaci\u00f3n del modelo. Ser mujer activa aumenta de manera importante las probabilidades de salir de la fuerza laboral en el siguiente per\u00edodo, en comparaci\u00f3n a su contraparte masculina.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[30],"class_list":["post-5911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2022"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Predicci\u00f3n de transiciones laborales de la actividad a la inactividad en el mercado laboral argentino: un enfoque de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predicci\u00f3n de transiciones laborales de la actividad a la inactividad en el mercado laboral argentino: un enfoque de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El presente trabajo se propone comparar la capacidad predictiva que los modelos tradicionales y de machine learning tienen para pronosticar la probabilidad de salida del mercado de trabajo en Argentina, a fin de encontrar el estimador de mayor consistencia y poder predictivo. A su vez, se indaga acerca de la influencia que las caracter\u00edsticas (individuales, familiares y laborales) de las personas activas tienen sobre dicha probabilidad, poniendo especial \u00e9nfasis en entender el rol del g\u00e9nero como determinante de las transiciones laborales. Para esto se utilizan datos de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares para el per\u00edodo 2004-2018. Los resultados encontrados indican una diferencia estad\u00edsticamente significativa del modelo XGBoost a la hora de predecir salidas del mercado laboral respecto a los dem\u00e1s modelos, aunque tambi\u00e9n se destaca la competitividad de la regresi\u00f3n logit. En cuanto al g\u00e9nero, se encuentra que su inclusi\u00f3n como variable es igual o m\u00e1s importante que aumentar la sofisticaci\u00f3n del modelo. Ser mujer activa aumenta de manera importante las probabilidades de salir de la fuerza laboral en el siguiente per\u00edodo, en comparaci\u00f3n a su contraparte masculina.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=5911\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-03T15:42:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-03T15:42:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=5911#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=5911\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Predicci\u00f3n de transiciones laborales de la actividad a la inactividad en el mercado laboral argentino: un enfoque de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-03T15:42:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-03T15:42:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=5911\"},\"wordCount\":37,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2022\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=5911\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=5911\",\"name\":\"Predicci\u00f3n de transiciones laborales de la actividad a la inactividad en el mercado laboral argentino: un enfoque de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico - 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