{"id":6141,"date":"2023-05-12T00:02:37","date_gmt":"2023-05-12T00:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=6141"},"modified":"2023-05-12T00:02:40","modified_gmt":"2023-05-12T00:02:40","slug":"global-financial-cycle-commodity-terms-of-trade-and-financial-spreads-in-emerging-markets-and-developing-economies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=6141","title":{"rendered":"Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2022\/4613.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities\u2019 net exporters or net importers) allows to evaluate the relative importance of international monetary spillovers and their impact on the domestic financial cycle volatility \u2014i.e., the coefficient of variation of financial spreads and risks. Given the relative importance of commodity trade in the economic structure of these countries, our study reveals that the sign and size of the trade balance of commodity goods are key parameters to rationalize the impact of global financial and liquidity conditions.<br \/>\nHence, the sign and volume of commodity external trade will define the effect on countries\u2019 financial spreads. We implement a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 countries during 1999:Q1-2020:Q4 that identifies the effect of global conditions on the countries\u2019 commodities terms of trade and financial spreads, first in a direct way, and then by a feedback mechanism by which the terms of trade have an asymmetric additional influence on spreads.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[30],"class_list":["post-6141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2022"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities\u2019 net exporters or net importers) allows to evaluate the relative importance of international monetary spillovers and their impact on the domestic financial cycle volatility \u2014i.e., the coefficient of variation of financial spreads and risks. Given the relative importance of commodity trade in the economic structure of these countries, our study reveals that the sign and size of the trade balance of commodity goods are key parameters to rationalize the impact of global financial and liquidity conditions. Hence, the sign and volume of commodity external trade will define the effect on countries\u2019 financial spreads. We implement a two-equation dynamic panel data model for 33 countries during 1999:Q1-2020:Q4 that identifies the effect of global conditions on the countries\u2019 commodities terms of trade and financial spreads, first in a direct way, and then by a feedback mechanism by which the terms of trade have an asymmetric additional influence on spreads.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=6141\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-12T00:02:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-12T00:02:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6141#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6141\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-12T00:02:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-12T00:02:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6141\"},\"wordCount\":31,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2022\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6141\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6141\",\"name\":\"Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - 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