{"id":6150,"date":"2023-05-12T00:06:42","date_gmt":"2023-05-12T00:06:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=6150"},"modified":"2023-05-12T00:06:44","modified_gmt":"2023-05-12T00:06:44","slug":"forecasting-inflation-in-argentina-a-probabilistic-approach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=6150","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach."},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2022\/4616.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Probability forecasts are gaining popularity in the macroeconomic discipline as point forecasts lack the ability to capture the level of uncertainty in fundamental variables like inflation, growth, exchange rate, or unemployment. This paper explores the use of probability forecasts to predict inflation in Argentina. The paper tests 30 different probabilistic models and evaluates them using scoring rules. Results show that parsimonious univariate models have a relatively similar performance to that of the multivariate models around central scenarios but fail to capture tail risks, particularly at longer horizons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[30],"class_list":["post-6150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2022"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach. - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach. - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Probability forecasts are gaining popularity in the macroeconomic discipline as point forecasts lack the ability to capture the level of uncertainty in fundamental variables like inflation, growth, exchange rate, or unemployment. 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Results show that parsimonious univariate models have a relatively similar performance to that of the multivariate models around central scenarios but fail to capture tail risks, particularly at longer horizons.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=6150\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-12T00:06:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-12T00:06:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6150#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6150\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach.\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-12T00:06:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-12T00:06:44+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6150\"},\"wordCount\":22,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2022\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6150\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=6150\",\"name\":\"Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach. - 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