{"id":7184,"date":"2023-12-05T21:17:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T21:17:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=7184"},"modified":"2023-12-05T21:17:12","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T21:17:12","slug":"dinero-tipo-de-cambio-e-inflacion-en-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=7184","title":{"rendered":"Dinero, tipo de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2023\/13.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La teor\u00eda econ\u00f3mica indica que la brecha entre la oferta y la demanda de dinero, tiene capacidad para predecir la inflaci\u00f3n futura. Para vincular el concepto de brecha en los saldos monetarios con el nivel de precios de la econom\u00eda, recurriremos a un modelo de econom\u00eda abierta peque\u00f1a con sector p\u00fablico y agentes que optimizan intertemporalmente sus decisiones. En el modelo los agentes producen bienes no transables utilizando su trabajo y reciben una dotaci\u00f3n de transables cuyos precios responden a la ley de un solo precio. Las familias derivan su utilidad del consumo, de las tenencias de dinero y del ocio. Los agentes pagan impuestos y pueden invertir sus ingresos en activos externos que proporcionan un retorno dado ex\u00f3genamente. La estrategia metodol\u00f3gica consta de dos etapas. Primero, se deducen los determinantes del nivel de precios de equilibrio de largo plazo resolviendo el modelo en torno del equilibrio de estado estacionario. Se obtiene entonces, que el nivel de precios de equilibrio depende de la cantidad de dinero, el producto, la tasa de inter\u00e9s, el tipo de cambio y el precio internacional de los transables. Segundo, se utiliza la ecuaci\u00f3n del nivel de precios as\u00ed obtenida para construir un modelo de correcci\u00f3n al equilibrio y estimar un modelo VAR I(2) cointegrado que explica la din\u00e1mica de la inflaci\u00f3n en la Argentina del per\u00edodo 1900-2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-7184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2023"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dinero, tipo de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dinero, tipo de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La teor\u00eda econ\u00f3mica indica que la brecha entre la oferta y la demanda de dinero, tiene capacidad para predecir la inflaci\u00f3n futura. Para vincular el concepto de brecha en los saldos monetarios con el nivel de precios de la econom\u00eda, recurriremos a un modelo de econom\u00eda abierta peque\u00f1a con sector p\u00fablico y agentes que optimizan intertemporalmente sus decisiones. En el modelo los agentes producen bienes no transables utilizando su trabajo y reciben una dotaci\u00f3n de transables cuyos precios responden a la ley de un solo precio. Las familias derivan su utilidad del consumo, de las tenencias de dinero y del ocio. Los agentes pagan impuestos y pueden invertir sus ingresos en activos externos que proporcionan un retorno dado ex\u00f3genamente. La estrategia metodol\u00f3gica consta de dos etapas. Primero, se deducen los determinantes del nivel de precios de equilibrio de largo plazo resolviendo el modelo en torno del equilibrio de estado estacionario. Se obtiene entonces, que el nivel de precios de equilibrio depende de la cantidad de dinero, el producto, la tasa de inter\u00e9s, el tipo de cambio y el precio internacional de los transables. Segundo, se utiliza la ecuaci\u00f3n del nivel de precios as\u00ed obtenida para construir un modelo de correcci\u00f3n al equilibrio y estimar un modelo VAR I(2) cointegrado que explica la din\u00e1mica de la inflaci\u00f3n en la Argentina del per\u00edodo 1900-2022.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=7184\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-05T21:17:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-12-05T21:17:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=7184#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=7184\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Dinero, tipo de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-05T21:17:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-12-05T21:17:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=7184\"},\"wordCount\":24,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2023\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=7184\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=7184\",\"name\":\"Dinero, tipo de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina - 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