{"id":7217,"date":"2023-12-06T23:56:46","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T23:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=7217"},"modified":"2023-12-06T23:58:30","modified_gmt":"2023-12-06T23:58:30","slug":"el-deficit-fiscal-deteriora-el-tipo-de-cambio-real-evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-egde-para-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=7217","title":{"rendered":"El-D\u00e9ficit-Fiscal-Deteriora-el-Tipo-de-Cambio-Real.-Evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-EGDE-para-Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2023\/4666.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Acorde a los marcos te\u00f3ricos est\u00e1ndar, como los modelos de Ciclos Reales (RBC) o las Teor\u00edas Neokeynesianas, el tipo de cambio real deber\u00eda apreciarse en respuesta a un aumento en el gasto p\u00fablico. Sin embargo, la literatura emp\u00edrica encuentra resultados mixtos. Ofrecemos una respuesta a este enigma analizando el impacto del d\u00e9ficit fiscal seg\u00fan su composici\u00f3n en el tipo de cambio real. Utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general din\u00e1mico y estoc\u00e1stico con gobierno y sector externo, cuantificamos el impacto diferencial sobre el tipo de cambio real generado por diversas fuentes de d\u00e9ficit fiscal: un aumento en el gasto destinado a consumo p\u00fablico, aumento de la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica y reducci\u00f3n de impuestos. Calibramos y simulamos el modelo para Argentina y encontramos que el d\u00e9ficit fiscal originado en la reducci\u00f3n de impuestos mejora el tipo de cambio real mientras que el generado por un aumento del gasto deteriora el tipo de cambio real. En particular, este deterioro es m\u00e1s significativo cuando el gasto se destina al consumo p\u00fablico que cuando se destina a la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica. Argumentamos que cuantificar estos efectos diferentes sobre el tipo de cambio dentro de un marco de equilibrio general estoc\u00e1stico din\u00e1mico es un ejercicio esencial de econom\u00eda pol\u00edtica para econom\u00edas emergentes altamente dolarizadas que exhiben un mayor pass-through.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-7217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2023"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El-D\u00e9ficit-Fiscal-Deteriora-el-Tipo-de-Cambio-Real.-Evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-EGDE-para-Argentina - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El-D\u00e9ficit-Fiscal-Deteriora-el-Tipo-de-Cambio-Real.-Evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-EGDE-para-Argentina - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Acorde a los marcos te\u00f3ricos est\u00e1ndar, como los modelos de Ciclos Reales (RBC) o las Teor\u00edas Neokeynesianas, el tipo de cambio real deber\u00eda apreciarse en respuesta a un aumento en el gasto p\u00fablico. Sin embargo, la literatura emp\u00edrica encuentra resultados mixtos. Ofrecemos una respuesta a este enigma analizando el impacto del d\u00e9ficit fiscal seg\u00fan su composici\u00f3n en el tipo de cambio real. Utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general din\u00e1mico y estoc\u00e1stico con gobierno y sector externo, cuantificamos el impacto diferencial sobre el tipo de cambio real generado por diversas fuentes de d\u00e9ficit fiscal: un aumento en el gasto destinado a consumo p\u00fablico, aumento de la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica y reducci\u00f3n de impuestos. Calibramos y simulamos el modelo para Argentina y encontramos que el d\u00e9ficit fiscal originado en la reducci\u00f3n de impuestos mejora el tipo de cambio real mientras que el generado por un aumento del gasto deteriora el tipo de cambio real. En particular, este deterioro es m\u00e1s significativo cuando el gasto se destina al consumo p\u00fablico que cuando se destina a la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica. 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