{"id":8996,"date":"2025-12-15T13:23:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:23:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=8996"},"modified":"2025-12-15T13:24:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:24:00","slug":"informalidad-laboral-y-presion-previsional-simulaciones-de-sostenibilidad-ante-el-envejecimiento-poblacional","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=8996","title":{"rendered":"Informalidad laboral y presi\u00f3n previsional:  Simulaciones de sostenibilidad ante el  envejecimiento poblacional"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4810.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Este trabajo analiza la sostenibilidad financiera del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino (SIPA) frente al envejecimiento demogr\u00e1fico, la persistente informalidad laboral y la brecha de g\u00e9nero. Se adopta el marco de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (CNT) y se construye el Coeficiente de Presi\u00f3n Previsional (CPP\u209c) como indicador central de equilibrio contributivo.   El an\u00e1lisis combina datos observados (2018\u20132024) con proyecciones demogr\u00e1ficas y laborales hasta 2050. Se modelan cuatro escenarios: inercial, aumento de la edad jubilatoria femenina, reducci\u00f3n de la informalidad y reforma combinada. Ninguna medida aislada revierte el d\u00e9ficit contributivo, aunque las reformas combinadas permiten contenerlo en torno al 1,5\u20132 % del PIB hacia mediados de siglo.   Un ejercicio de sensibilidad incorpora la dimensi\u00f3n de suficiencia: elevar el haber m\u00ednimo hasta la canasta b\u00e1sica total mejora la suficiencia, pero compromete la cobertura previsional, que podr\u00eda descender hasta el 70 %.   Los resultados muestran que la sostenibilidad del SIPA requiere una estrategia integral que articule ajustes param\u00e9tricos, formalizaci\u00f3n laboral y financiamiento complementario.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-8996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Informalidad laboral y presi\u00f3n previsional: Simulaciones de sostenibilidad ante el envejecimiento poblacional - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Informalidad laboral y presi\u00f3n previsional: Simulaciones de sostenibilidad ante el envejecimiento poblacional - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Este trabajo analiza la sostenibilidad financiera del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino (SIPA) frente al envejecimiento demogr\u00e1fico, la persistente informalidad laboral y la brecha de g\u00e9nero. Se adopta el marco de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (CNT) y se construye el Coeficiente de Presi\u00f3n Previsional (CPP\u209c) como indicador central de equilibrio contributivo.  El an\u00e1lisis combina datos observados (2018\u20132024) con proyecciones demogr\u00e1ficas y laborales hasta 2050. Se modelan cuatro escenarios: inercial, aumento de la edad jubilatoria femenina, reducci\u00f3n de la informalidad y reforma combinada. Ninguna medida aislada revierte el d\u00e9ficit contributivo, aunque las reformas combinadas permiten contenerlo en torno al 1,5\u20132 % del PIB hacia mediados de siglo.  Un ejercicio de sensibilidad incorpora la dimensi\u00f3n de suficiencia: elevar el haber m\u00ednimo hasta la canasta b\u00e1sica total mejora la suficiencia, pero compromete la cobertura previsional, que podr\u00eda descender hasta el 70 %.  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