{"id":9014,"date":"2025-12-15T13:29:51","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:29:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9014"},"modified":"2025-12-17T10:03:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T13:03:15","slug":"una-estimacion-del-desalineamiento-cambiario-real-para-argentina-1980-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9014","title":{"rendered":"Una Estimaci\u00f3n del Desalineamiento Cambiario Real para Argentina 1980-2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4815.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dada la existencia de importantes limitaciones metodol\u00f3gicas en gran parte de los estudios sobre desalineamiento cambiario en Argentina \u2014entre ellas, la falta de consideraci\u00f3n de quiebres estructurales en las series y la escasa aplicabilidad pr\u00e1ctica del concepto de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio (TCRE)\u2014, este trabajo se propone estimar dicho TCRE para el per\u00edodo 1980-2022 y, a partir de ello, construir la correspondiente serie de desalineamiento cambiario. La estimaci\u00f3n se realiza mediante un enfoque de cointegraci\u00f3n ARDL, identific\u00e1ndose como determinantes significativos del tipo de cambio real (TCR) los t\u00e9rminos de intercambio, la deuda externa, el gasto p\u00fablico y la productividad relativa. La comparaci\u00f3n entre el TCR estimado y el observado permite elaborar una serie completa de desalineamiento consistente con los principales episodios econ\u00f3micos del per\u00edodo. Entre los hallazgos, destaca la persistencia de un atraso cambiario desde 2010, no revertido ni siquiera con las devaluaciones de 2014 y 2015, y que alcanza su punto m\u00e1ximo tras la pandemia de COVID-19. Los resultados obtenidos respaldan la necesidad de mantener pol\u00edticas fiscales, cambiarias y monetarias coherentes y sostenibles, con el fin de preservar la estabilidad y prevenir crisis econ\u00f3micas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-9014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Una Estimaci\u00f3n del Desalineamiento Cambiario Real para Argentina 1980-2022 - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Una Estimaci\u00f3n del Desalineamiento Cambiario Real para Argentina 1980-2022 - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dada la existencia de importantes limitaciones metodol\u00f3gicas en gran parte de los estudios sobre desalineamiento cambiario en Argentina \u2014entre ellas, la falta de consideraci\u00f3n de quiebres estructurales en las series y la escasa aplicabilidad pr\u00e1ctica del concepto de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio (TCRE)\u2014, este trabajo se propone estimar dicho TCRE para el per\u00edodo 1980-2022 y, a partir de ello, construir la correspondiente serie de desalineamiento cambiario. La estimaci\u00f3n se realiza mediante un enfoque de cointegraci\u00f3n ARDL, identific\u00e1ndose como determinantes significativos del tipo de cambio real (TCR) los t\u00e9rminos de intercambio, la deuda externa, el gasto p\u00fablico y la productividad relativa. La comparaci\u00f3n entre el TCR estimado y el observado permite elaborar una serie completa de desalineamiento consistente con los principales episodios econ\u00f3micos del per\u00edodo. Entre los hallazgos, destaca la persistencia de un atraso cambiario desde 2010, no revertido ni siquiera con las devaluaciones de 2014 y 2015, y que alcanza su punto m\u00e1ximo tras la pandemia de COVID-19. Los resultados obtenidos respaldan la necesidad de mantener pol\u00edticas fiscales, cambiarias y monetarias coherentes y sostenibles, con el fin de preservar la estabilidad y prevenir crisis econ\u00f3micas.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9014\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T16:29:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-17T13:03:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9014#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9014\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Una Estimaci\u00f3n del Desalineamiento Cambiario Real para Argentina 1980-2022\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-15T16:29:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-17T13:03:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9014\"},\"wordCount\":25,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9014\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9014\",\"name\":\"Una Estimaci\u00f3n del Desalineamiento Cambiario Real para Argentina 1980-2022 - 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