{"id":9020,"date":"2025-12-15T13:53:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:53:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9020"},"modified":"2025-12-15T13:53:41","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:53:41","slug":"no-pay-no-debt-domestic-costs-of-sovereign-defaults","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9020","title":{"rendered":"No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4817.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This paper investigates the domestic economic consequences of sovereign defaults by analyzing their impact on key macroeconomic variables, including GDP per capita, consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study constructs counterfactual scenarios for defaulting countries to estimate the effect of defaults on economic outcomes. The results indicate that sovereign defaults generally have persistent negative effects, especially on GDP per capita, investment, and trade, with the adverse impacts often starting before the default due to anticipation effects. However, some countries experienced effects that challenge standard intuition. Results for unemployment are mixed and effects on inflation are inconclusive. These findings highlight complex and heterogeneous dynamics around sovereign defaults. While SCM is valuable, anticipation effects and data limitations motivate further methodological refinements and country\u2013specific analyses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-9020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This paper investigates the domestic economic consequences of sovereign defaults by analyzing their impact on key macroeconomic variables, including GDP per capita, consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study constructs counterfactual scenarios for defaulting countries to estimate the effect of defaults on economic outcomes. The results indicate that sovereign defaults generally have persistent negative effects, especially on GDP per capita, investment, and trade, with the adverse impacts often starting before the default due to anticipation effects. However, some countries experienced effects that challenge standard intuition. Results for unemployment are mixed and effects on inflation are inconclusive. These findings highlight complex and heterogeneous dynamics around sovereign defaults. While SCM is valuable, anticipation effects and data limitations motivate further methodological refinements and country\u2013specific analyses.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T16:53:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T16:53:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9020#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9020\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-15T16:53:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-15T16:53:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9020\"},\"wordCount\":24,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9020\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9020\",\"name\":\"No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults - 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