{"id":9023,"date":"2025-12-15T13:54:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:54:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9023"},"modified":"2025-12-15T13:54:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T16:54:37","slug":"global-dollar-shocks-and-spillovers-into-emdes-the-channels-of-commodity-prices-and-country-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9023","title":{"rendered":"Global Dollar Shocks and Spillovers into EMDEs: The Channels of Commodity Prices and Country Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4818.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This paper shows how global dollar appreciations transmit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through commodity prices and country risk. Using quarterly data for 22 EMDEs from 1999\u20132019, I combine the Obstfeld &amp; Zhou (2023) dataset with country-specific commodity price indices and classify countries as commodity exporters or importers via a trade-balance rule. Global dollar appreciation shocks explain up to 16% of the forecast-error variance of commodity terms of trade (CToT) and up to 9% of EMBI spreads. A global dollar appreciation depreciates EMDE currencies, raises EMBI, depresses investment, and lowers GDP, with muted CPI effects. Stratifying by commodity status reveals sharp heterogeneity: exporters suffer larger and more persistent adverse responses, while importers seem stable. To uncover mechanisms, I implement an approach `a la Cloyne\u2013Jord`a\u2013Taylor (2023) to estimate indirect effects. A more favorable CToT response mitigates output and demand contractions, whereas higher commodity import prices and larger EMBI responses amplify adverse outcomes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-9023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Dollar Shocks and Spillovers into EMDEs: The Channels of Commodity Prices and Country Risk - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Dollar Shocks and Spillovers into EMDEs: The Channels of Commodity Prices and Country Risk - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This paper shows how global dollar appreciations transmit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through commodity prices and country risk. Using quarterly data for 22 EMDEs from 1999\u20132019, I combine the Obstfeld &amp; Zhou (2023) dataset with country-specific commodity price indices and classify countries as commodity exporters or importers via a trade-balance rule. Global dollar appreciation shocks explain up to 16% of the forecast-error variance of commodity terms of trade (CToT) and up to 9% of EMBI spreads. A global dollar appreciation depreciates EMDE currencies, raises EMBI, depresses investment, and lowers GDP, with muted CPI effects. Stratifying by commodity status reveals sharp heterogeneity: exporters suffer larger and more persistent adverse responses, while importers seem stable. To uncover mechanisms, I implement an approach `a la Cloyne\u2013Jord`a\u2013Taylor (2023) to estimate indirect effects. A more favorable CToT response mitigates output and demand contractions, whereas higher commodity import prices and larger EMBI responses amplify adverse outcomes.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T16:54:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T16:54:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9023#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9023\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Global Dollar Shocks and Spillovers into EMDEs: The Channels of Commodity Prices and Country Risk\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-15T16:54:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-15T16:54:37+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9023\"},\"wordCount\":30,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9023\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9023\",\"name\":\"Global Dollar Shocks and Spillovers into EMDEs: The Channels of Commodity Prices and Country Risk - 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