{"id":9112,"date":"2025-12-15T20:44:21","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T23:44:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9112"},"modified":"2025-12-15T20:44:23","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T23:44:23","slug":"long-and-variable-lags-in-argentinas-monetary-policy-evidence-from-disaggregated-price-indices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9112","title":{"rendered":"Long and Variable Lags in Argentina&#8217;s Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4836.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using monthly data for 2016-2025, I identified unexpected policy innovations as residuals from a Taylor rule and estimated Local-Projection impulse responses for headline CPI, tradables\/non-tradables, and nine disaggregated components, treating those innovations as monetary policy shocks. Tightening is no quick fix: a +10 pp policy-rate shock leaves monthly inflation above baseline for roughly two years and cumulates sizable price-level gains (approx. 7-8 pp at one year, remaining positive at two to four years). Movements are faster and larger in tradables; services adjust more slowly, with wide heterogeneity across categories. Inference relies on heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) standard errors with wild-bootstrap checks. These patterns indicate long and variable lags in this setting; effective disinflation requires persistence and coordination with complementary instruments. Evidence suggests the monetary policy rate was either ineffective or not the right instrument to achieve price stability, perhaps favoring the choice of monetary-aggregate targeting for Argentina. I find early 90% significance for most series and zero-hit times clustering near two years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-9112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Long and Variable Lags in Argentina&#039;s Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Long and Variable Lags in Argentina&#039;s Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Using monthly data for 2016-2025, I identified unexpected policy innovations as residuals from a Taylor rule and estimated Local-Projection impulse responses for headline CPI, tradables\/non-tradables, and nine disaggregated components, treating those innovations as monetary policy shocks. Tightening is no quick fix: a +10 pp policy-rate shock leaves monthly inflation above baseline for roughly two years and cumulates sizable price-level gains (approx. 7-8 pp at one year, remaining positive at two to four years). Movements are faster and larger in tradables; services adjust more slowly, with wide heterogeneity across categories. Inference relies on heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) standard errors with wild-bootstrap checks. These patterns indicate long and variable lags in this setting; effective disinflation requires persistence and coordination with complementary instruments. Evidence suggests the monetary policy rate was either ineffective or not the right instrument to achieve price stability, perhaps favoring the choice of monetary-aggregate targeting for Argentina. I find early 90% significance for most series and zero-hit times clustering near two years.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9112\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T23:44:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T23:44:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9112#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9112\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Long and Variable Lags in Argentina&#8217;s Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-15T23:44:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-15T23:44:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9112\"},\"wordCount\":29,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9112\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9112\",\"name\":\"Long and Variable Lags in Argentina's Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices - 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