{"id":9118,"date":"2025-12-15T20:46:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T23:46:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9118"},"modified":"2025-12-15T20:46:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T23:46:27","slug":"el-impacto-de-las-devaluaciones-sobre-el-pib-en-america-latina-un-analisis-para-1993-2004-a-partir-de-local-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9118","title":{"rendered":"El impacto de las devaluaciones sobre el PIB en Am\u00e9rica Latina: un an\u00e1lisis para 1993\u20132004 a partir de Local Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4837.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En este trabajo estimamos el efecto del tipo de cambio nominal sobre el producto utilizando Local Projections (LPs) para una muestra de 13 pa\u00edses de Am\u00e9rica latina para el periodo 1993-2024 con frecuencia trimestral. Llevamos a cabo un an\u00e1lisis para todo el panel y tambi\u00e9n otro an\u00e1lisis espec\u00edfico por pa\u00eds. Luego estimamos LPs por cuantiles y estudiamos la presencia de no linealidades.  Encontramos un importante efecto contractivo para la regi\u00f3n, tal como se\u00f1ala la literatura de devaluaciones contractivas. Sin embargo, al estimar LPs por pa\u00eds  encontramos efectos heterog\u00e9neos. Mientras en Argentina, Brasil y Chile se observa un efecto contractivo, en pa\u00edses como Bolivia y El Salvador se encuentran efectos expansivos.  Tambi\u00e9n detectamos que no existen diferencias relevantes entre cuantiles para el panel. Pero analizando por pa\u00eds, encontramos que en algunos casos (como Bolivia y Chile) existen diferencias significativas. Por \u00faltimo, encontramos la existencia de no linealidades: los pa\u00edses con alta inflaci\u00f3n sufren un efecto m\u00e1s contractivo ante un shock cambiario que los pa\u00edses con baja inflaci\u00f3n aunque ese efecto se revierte r\u00e1pidamente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-9118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El impacto de las devaluaciones sobre el PIB en Am\u00e9rica Latina: un an\u00e1lisis para 1993\u20132004 a partir de Local Projections - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El impacto de las devaluaciones sobre el PIB en Am\u00e9rica Latina: un an\u00e1lisis para 1993\u20132004 a partir de Local Projections - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En este trabajo estimamos el efecto del tipo de cambio nominal sobre el producto utilizando Local Projections (LPs) para una muestra de 13 pa\u00edses de Am\u00e9rica latina para el periodo 1993-2024 con frecuencia trimestral. Llevamos a cabo un an\u00e1lisis para todo el panel y tambi\u00e9n otro an\u00e1lisis espec\u00edfico por pa\u00eds. Luego estimamos LPs por cuantiles y estudiamos la presencia de no linealidades. Encontramos un importante efecto contractivo para la regi\u00f3n, tal como se\u00f1ala la literatura de devaluaciones contractivas. Sin embargo, al estimar LPs por pa\u00eds encontramos efectos heterog\u00e9neos. Mientras en Argentina, Brasil y Chile se observa un efecto contractivo, en pa\u00edses como Bolivia y El Salvador se encuentran efectos expansivos. Tambi\u00e9n detectamos que no existen diferencias relevantes entre cuantiles para el panel. Pero analizando por pa\u00eds, encontramos que en algunos casos (como Bolivia y Chile) existen diferencias significativas. Por \u00faltimo, encontramos la existencia de no linealidades: los pa\u00edses con alta inflaci\u00f3n sufren un efecto m\u00e1s contractivo ante un shock cambiario que los pa\u00edses con baja inflaci\u00f3n aunque ese efecto se revierte r\u00e1pidamente.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9118\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T23:46:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T23:46:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9118#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9118\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"El impacto de las devaluaciones sobre el PIB en Am\u00e9rica Latina: un an\u00e1lisis para 1993\u20132004 a partir de Local Projections\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-15T23:46:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-15T23:46:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9118\"},\"wordCount\":36,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9118\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9118\",\"name\":\"El impacto de las devaluaciones sobre el PIB en Am\u00e9rica Latina: un an\u00e1lisis para 1993\u20132004 a partir de Local Projections - 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