{"id":9133,"date":"2025-12-15T20:52:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T23:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9133"},"modified":"2025-12-15T20:52:33","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T23:52:33","slug":"predictibilidad-de-la-tasa-de-politica-monetaria-durante-el-regimen-de-metas-de-inflacion-en-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9133","title":{"rendered":"Predictibilidad de la Tasa de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wonderplugin-pdf-iframe\" src=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/wp-content\/plugins\/wonderplugin-pdf-embed\/pdfjslight\/web\/viewer.html?v=2&file=https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/works\/works2025\/4841.pdf\" width=\"100%\" height=\"600px\" style=\"border:0;\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En este trabajo analizamos la previsibilidad de la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina (2016\u20132018), utilizando una metodolog\u00eda similar al trabajo de G\u00fcrkaynak, Sack y Swanson (2012). Para ello, estimamos tasas efectivas mensuales siguiendo la ley del precio \u00fanico y aplicamos regresiones que permiten identificar la relaci\u00f3n entre estas tasas y los movimientos de la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria. Nuestros resultados muestran que el REM es el predictor m\u00e1s preciso y estad\u00edsticamente significativo, con el mayor coeficiente de determinaci\u00f3n y el menor error cuadr\u00e1tico medio. En cambio, otras tasas de mercado presentan un poder explicativo menor, especialmente en el per\u00edodo posterior al r\u00e9gimen. El REM, en cambio, conserva su capacidad predictiva, lo que refuerza su utilidad como indicador de expectativas. As\u00ed, aportamos evidencia emp\u00edrica sobre el v\u00ednculo entre expectativas, credibilidad y pol\u00edtica monetaria.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-9133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anales","tag-aaep-anales-2025"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Predictibilidad de la Tasa de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predictibilidad de la Tasa de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina - Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En este trabajo analizamos la previsibilidad de la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina (2016\u20132018), utilizando una metodolog\u00eda similar al trabajo de G\u00fcrkaynak, Sack y Swanson (2012). Para ello, estimamos tasas efectivas mensuales siguiendo la ley del precio \u00fanico y aplicamos regresiones que permiten identificar la relaci\u00f3n entre estas tasas y los movimientos de la tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria. Nuestros resultados muestran que el REM es el predictor m\u00e1s preciso y estad\u00edsticamente significativo, con el mayor coeficiente de determinaci\u00f3n y el menor error cuadr\u00e1tico medio. En cambio, otras tasas de mercado presentan un poder explicativo menor, especialmente en el per\u00edodo posterior al r\u00e9gimen. El REM, en cambio, conserva su capacidad predictiva, lo que refuerza su utilidad como indicador de expectativas. As\u00ed, aportamos evidencia emp\u00edrica sobre el v\u00ednculo entre expectativas, credibilidad y pol\u00edtica monetaria.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aaep.org.ar\/?p=9133\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Asociaci\u00f3n Argentina de Econom\u00eda Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T23:52:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T23:52:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@aaepoficial\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aaepolitica\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9133#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9133\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aaepolitica\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7150b747ba20875259c74b2cd177316c\"},\"headline\":\"Predictibilidad de la Tasa de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-15T23:52:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-15T23:52:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9133\"},\"wordCount\":34,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"AAEP Anales 2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Anales\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9133\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/aaep.org.ar\\\/?p=9133\",\"name\":\"Predictibilidad de la Tasa de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria durante el r\u00e9gimen de metas de inflaci\u00f3n en Argentina - 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