Autor: Campos Luciano
Institución: UBA-CONICET-IIEP-UCEMA
Año: 2022
JEL: E58, N16
Resumen:
This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for the six biggest Latin American economies. Considering the fact that money velocity is the permanent component of the nominal interest rate, both the nominal and real natural rates are estimated simply by running an OLS regression. It is evidenced a downward trend in the real natural rate since the 2010s, comparable with relative stagnation suffered by the region once the favorable conditions of the 2000s commodity boom were over. This result has direct implications for the monetary stance evaluation in the region, which are further analyzed in this work.