Autor: Rabassa Mariano Javier(*), Garcia-Witulski Christian(*), Conte Grand Mariana(**), Rozenberg Julie(**)
Institución: (*)UCA, (**)The World Bank
JEL: I1, Q0
This paper analyzes the effect temperature on human mortality rates in Argentina. The study rests on semiparametric techniques applied to data with a panel structure to estimate the causal effect of temperature extremes on mortality. Monthly mortality rates for municipalities, constructed from the universe of deaths between 2010 and 2019 were regressed on monthly temperatures distributions, precipitation, and municipality-by-month and month fixed effects. Separate regressions were carried out to examine the heterogeneous impacts by age and gender. We also explore alternative specifications as well as differences by death causes. Results show that extreme temperatures increase mortality rates relative to mean temperatures, and the impact of colder-than-average temperatures in slightly greater in magnitude than that of hotter ones. There exists substantial heterogeneity between age groups, with older people facing greater risks while results for gender and proxied income level is inconclusive. All days of extreme cold cause associated death damages equivalent to 0.6% of GDP, while heat damages correspond to 0.1% of 2019 GDP. On the other side, when climate change impacts are valued, damages total 0.7% of GDP in scenario 8.5 since savings due to less mortality occurring in cold day compensate only partially the increase in the number of hot days. If temperature changes are mild (RCP 4.5), mortality would decrease at the national level, but some regions would still be affected.