Autor: Tan Jun Ríos María Angélica
JEL: D72, P16
The Political Budget Cycles (PBC) are fundamental features of democratic regimes. Theoretical models and most of the empirical literature sustain that opportunistic incumbents manipulate fiscal policy to retain power. Using a panel data of al 24 Argentine subnational districts spanning over the lapse 1993 - 2020, I study the behavior of social spending in election and non-election years for the whole period and for different subperiods. I also explore the performance of social spending subgroups as well as partisan effects. My dynamic panel data estimations confirm that social spending increases in election years, although there are substantial differences across spending subgroups. In contrast with Calvo and Murillo (2004) I find no partisan effects in election years.