Autor: Moncarz Pedro Esteban*, Rovira Flavia**, Villano Sebastian***, Vaillant Marcel***
Institución: (*)UNC-CONICET, (**)cinve, (***)Universidad de la República
Año: 2024
JEL: F10, F15
Resumen:
The multilateralization of regionalism implies the convergence of a series of previous agreements into a single plurilateral agreement with greater liberalization ambitions at both the intensive and extensive margins. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is an example of this phenomenon. After estimating the structural dynamic gravity model of trade proposed by Anderson, Larch and Yotov (2020), different counterfactual scenarios were simulated according to the countries that are members of the agreement: CPTPP as currently constituted and with the accession of new members (countries that have already submitted their application for membership): China, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Ukraine and Uruguay. A short-run static equilibrium (in which only prices change) and a long-run dynamic equilibrium (with real effects on output and capital stock) were evaluated. The long-run effects are almost twice as large as the short-run effects. In the scenario with China inside the agreement, CPTPP members experience larger welfare gains. The economies that benefit the most are those of Southeast Asia belonging to ASEAN (Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore), for which the extensive margin is related to the agreements with the countries of the Americas and are closer to the large markets of Asia and Oceania (Japan, China and Australia). Uruguay stands out for the large effect of trade liberalization, ranking fourth in terms of welfare gains and second in terms of total international trade. The agreement improves the country's access to South Asian markets (extensive margin), while deepening trade relations with American countries with which Uruguay already has preferential relations (intensive margin).