Autor: Pontual Ribeiro Eduardo*, Golovanova Svetlana**
Institución: (*)Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, (**)National Research University Higher School of Economics
Año: 2025
JEL: L8, L4
Resumen:
Understanding the closeness of competition between competitors is of interest for market analysts and antitrust practitioners . The diversion ratio is a central statistic to summarize it. We present an empirical method to estimate diversion ratios from market share data using transition matrix estimates. The method can help understand the closeness of competition going beyond restrictive market-share based diversion ratios with little data requirements. The method is used to calculate counterfactuals and estimate the effect of international online travel agencies platforms exit from the Russian market in March, 2022. The counterfactual allows one to explain market changes over time from consumer substitution patterns, firm repositioning and income effects. Our results indicate that market relevance before the restrictions did not predict gains from competitor restrictions.